October 2026 Visa Bulletin: Critical EB-2 Retrogression and Why It Was Delayed

This is a written summary of the “October Visa Bulletin Delay” YouTube session with Sam Shiha and Brian Burke, recorded September 28, 2026 — the day before the bulletin was released

Published September 29, 2026 / Last reviewed September 29, 2026

Quick answer: Yesterday, September 28, we discussed several possible explanations for an unusually late October 2026 Visa Bulletin. Today, September 29, the bulletin is out. Some of the concerns we raised did not materialize — notably, USCIS is still using the Dates for Filing chart for employment-based adjustment applications for the October 2026 Visa Bulletin. Others remain genuinely unresolved — the Department of State still hasn’t explained why the October 2026 Visa Bulletin was late. Below, we walk through what we speculated before the release, what the bulletin actually says, and why we think the more useful takeaway is to stop trying to predict the bulletin and focus on case readiness instead.

The Real Takeaway: Stop Predicting the Bulletin, Focus on Case Readiness

This is where the livestream itself landed, and it’s the point worth leading with rather than burying. Predicting visa bulletin movement more than a month or two out is not a reliable exercise — even for experienced immigration attorneys working with the available data. As Sam put it when asked to predict a specific interview timeline for a viewer’s case, “I don’t think there’s anyone in America [who] knows that answer.”

The practical implication: rather than trying to time a case around bulletin predictions, focus on what’s actually within your control — a properly prepared filing, confirming whether your Form I-693 medical examination remains valid under current USCIS rules, an up-to-date AR-11 address filing, and a quick, complete response if USCIS asks for anything. When a category does move, being ready is what actually matters, not having correctly guessed the date in advance.

What We Thought Might Be Causing the October 2026 Visa Bulletin Delay

As of the evening of September 28, 2026, with October 1st about 48 hours away, the Department of State had not released the bulletin — unusual timing given the fiscal year deadline. On the livestream, Sam Shiha and Brian Burke ran through several possible explanations, but were explicit throughout that they did not know the actual reason and were speculating out loud. The theories included:

• The 75-country immigrant visa pause and its aftermath. Beginning January 21, 2026, the State Department paused immigrant visa issuance for nationals of 75 countries while reassessing public-charge screening. In Catholic Legal Immigration Network, Inc. (CLINIC) v. Rubio, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, the court vacated that policy in a ruling issued in late August 2026, setting aside visa refusals made solely on that basis. Subsequent court filings addressed the government’s implementation of the ruling. Some reporting has put the number of immigrant-visa applications refused under the vacated policy above 43,000, though we were not able to independently confirm that specific figure from a primary court document ourselves. On the livestream, we discussed whether this restored pool of cases could affect future family-based visa demand.
• Consular interview pauses tied to new public-charge training, potentially limiting the usage data available to calculate the bulletin.
• Expanded social media vetting at consulates, requiring five years of history for many visa categories.
• USCIS activity ahead of the release — reports of applicants receiving “initial review” notices on long-pending cases in the days before the bulletin came out, which Sam and Brian read as USCIS trying to get a handle on demand, though they were careful not to treat this as confirmed insight into what the numbers would show.
• A deliberate, policy-driven delay — Sam’s own stated opinion, offered explicitly as speculation rather than fact, was that the operational explanations above didn’t fully account for the delay, and that it might reflect a considered agency decision rather than a technical backlog.

It’s worth being direct about where things actually stand: the Department of State has not explained the delay, and the October bulletin itself notes that its allocations were based on demand received through September 4 — which, in our view, weakens the theory that developments in the final days before release directly determined the published cutoff dates. That’s our inference, not a DOS statement. We don’t know why the bulletin was late, and as far as we can tell, neither has DOS said.

The Biggest Concern That Didn’t Happen: The Dates for Filing Chart Survived in the October 2026 Visa Bulletin

A meaningful part of the livestream discussion was Sam and Brian wondering aloud whether the administration might eliminate the Dates for Filing chart altogether, or decline to authorize USCIS to use it — noting that the chart isn’t required by regulation and was itself a policy creation dating to 2015.

That didn’t happen. USCIS has designated the Dates for Filing chart for employment-based adjustment of status applications in October 2026 — see USCIS’s own Adjustment of Status Filing Charts page, which is the authoritative source for which chart applies each month (the Department of State’s bulletin itself directs applicants to USCIS for that determination). This is the same mechanism discussed on the livestream as a possible casualty of policy change, and it’s worth noting plainly: one of the bigger concerns raised on the show did not materialize.

What the October 2026 Visa Bulletin Actually Shows

Separately from the delay itself, the Department of State has given a specific, stated reason for the movement in the numbers: it needed to keep certain “Rest of World” employment-based categories within fiscal year 2027 quarterly and annual visa number limits. That’s a different question from why the bulletin was late — it’s DOS’s explanation for the retrogression, not for the delay — and the two shouldn’t be blended together.

Employment-Based Dates for Filing (October 2026)

For October 2026, USCIS is allowing employment-based adjustment applicants to use the Dates for Filing chart, with EB-2 Worldwide, Mexico, and Philippines retrogressing to March 15, 2026.

The most significant move: EB-2 dates for filing for Worldwide, Mexico, and Philippines chargeability retrogressed from Current to March 15, 2026. China and India moved differently within the same category — China’s EB-2 filing date advanced one year, from January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, while India’s EB-2 filing date held at January 15, 2015 even as India’s EB-2 final action date reopened from “Unavailable.” The Department of State indicated it will continue monitoring visa number usage and adjust future bulletins accordingly. (See the full October 2026 Visa Bulletin for every category and country combination.)

Family-Based Categories

Family-based categories moved favorably for some countries, particularly Mexico and the Philippines. For example, the F1 Final Action Date advanced from January 1, 2008 to September 8, 2008 for Mexico, and from May 1, 2013 to November 1, 2013 for the Philippines. F4 dates improved across multiple countries as well.

On the livestream, we raised the possibility that the reinstated family-based interviews discussed above could force retrogression in family categories to protect that pool of demand. That specific retrogression did not occur in this bulletin. But that doesn’t tell us whether, or to what extent, the Department of State incorporated those reinstated cases into its demand calculations at all — there could be effects that simply aren’t visible from comparing September’s cutoffs to October’s. If those cases do affect visa availability, it may not show up until a later bulletin. We’d rather say that plainly than read too much into one month of data.

What This Means If You’re Watching Your Priority Date

If your category retrogressed — notably EB-2 Worldwide, Mexico, or Philippines chargeability — and you were relying on the September dates to file or to move a pending case forward, talk to your attorney about how the new cutoff affects your specific filing. Retrogression generally does not invalidate an I-485 that was properly filed while the applicant was eligible to file — the application remains pending — though USCIS generally cannot approve it unless an immigrant visa is available at final action.

If your category advanced — EB-1 India/China, EB-2 China, EB-5 China/India — this may be the moment to confirm your case is fully prepared to file or to move toward final adjudication.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why was the October 2026 Visa Bulletin released later than usual?
The Department of State has not given an official explanation, and immigration attorneys are speculating rather than reporting confirmed facts. Possible contributing factors discussed include litigation over the 75-country immigrant visa pause and consular staff training tied to a new public-charge rule, but none of these has been confirmed by DOS as the actual cause of the delay.

Which chart is USCIS using for employment-based adjustment of status filings in October 2026?
USCIS has designated the Dates for Filing chart for employment-based I-485 applications in October 2026 — the same mechanism some attorneys had speculated might be eliminated or restricted. Confirm current status on USCIS’s Adjustment of Status Filing Charts page, since this designation can change monthly.
Did EB-2 retrogress in the October 2026 Visa Bulletin?
Yes, for Worldwide, Mexico, and Philippines chargeability, the EB-2 date for filing retrogressed from Current to March 15, 2026. China and India moved differently — see the table above.
Does retrogression invalidate an I-485 that’s already been filed?
No. An I-485 properly filed while the applicant was eligible to file generally remains pending even after later retrogression. USCIS generally cannot approve the case, however, unless a visa is available under the final action date at the time of adjudication.
Will pending family-based litigation cause retrogression in a future bulletin?
We don’t know yet. The specific retrogression scenario some attorneys speculated about did not occur in the October bulletin, but that doesn’t establish whether or how any reinstated cases were factored into DOS’s demand calculations. Any effect may not be visible until a later bulletin.

Talk to an Immigration Attorney About Your Priority Date

Visa bulletin movement is genuinely difficult to predict, and how a specific retrogression or advancement affects your case depends on your priority date, category, and chargeability country. If you have questions about your own case following the October 2026 bulletin, contact Shihab Burke Immigration Lawyers at immigrationvisaattorney.com or 614-791-0500. You can also submit your immigration question for one of our live Q&A sessions at ImmigrationQuestions.US.
This article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Visa bulletin data changes monthly, and how it applies to your case depends on your specific facts. Consult a licensed immigration attorney before making decisions based on this information.